It Ain't That Bad

There is a groan heard across the country these days (yep, again) that America's best days are behind her. That things have never been this bad and that the entire West is in decline. (Actually, I read a blog in which the author cited the "...global decline of Western society..." [sic])

However, it seems it is the function of some portion of every generation to bemoan the imminent collapse and inherent unfairness of whatever societal system, assuming they have been granted the right to moan by that societal system in the first place.

As Zev Chafets recently said, "Ninety-nine years ago, a guy stood up at a political convention ... and he said, 'We stand at Armageddon, and we battle for the Lord.' That was Teddy Roosevelt. 'Armageddon' was Woodrow Wilson. It’s always Armageddon for people who have that tendency..."

In January of 1976, the inflation rate was 6.7%. In January of 1948, it was 18.1%. In January of 2011, it was 1.6%. Incredibly low.

In January of 1983, the unemployment rate was 10.4% In January of 2011, it was 9.0%. High, yes, but not unprecedented. In 1982-83, the unemployment rate stayed above 9% for 19 months and the inflation rate during that period was twice what it is today.

Even the price of gasoline, if adjusted for inflation, is not at new heights. In 1981, the annual average price was $1.35 per gallon. When you adjust that for inflation, that's $3.25 in 2010 dollars. What that means to those who don't find economics fun- because wages have also risen since 1981 as well as prices, it was as painful to spend $1.35 per gallon of gas in 1981 as it was to spend $3.25 per gallon in 2010. No more painful, no less painful. Even a national average of $4 per gallon has happened before, in July 2008.

Government shut-downs have happened before (see Clinton-Gingrich in '95-96, and also 1981, 1984, and 1990).

Union busting? When a group of employees votes to no longer have unions in their place of employment, this is known as de-certification. In the 1970s, unions lost 73% of those votes. In August 1981, Reagan used the Taft-Hartley Act of 1947 to fire more than 11,000 striking air traffic controllers. And then he banned them FOR LIFE from federal service. Clinton lifted the ban, but still, pretty rough stuff.

The rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer? Economic data shows we're on the same tide. The net worth of households, all households, in America rose steadily from 2002 to 2007. Then with the housing crash, caused not only by banks lending to people they shouldn't have but also by people wanting McMansions they had no business buying, the net worth of all households fell. In mid-2008, things bottomed out and net worth of households has risen since then. We're not yet back to 2007 levels, but those were artificial, at the height of the bubble.

Are things tough? Yes. I, like many, am juggling bills too. It's scary and stressful. Is it Armageddon? I don't think so. Woody Wilson is long gone after all.